The Polls in the 2002 French Presidential Election: An Autopsy

Table des matières

1. The Polls of the French Presidential Election of 2002, a Catastrophe?
   
   
2. Context
   
   
3. Why do polls go wrong?
   
   
4. Why do polls go wrong? (followed)
   
   
5. How to measure accuracy ?
   
   
6. What happened in the first-round of the French presidential election of 2002 ?
   
   
7. Difference between the polls published during the last week and the vote
   
   
8. Difference between the polls published during the last week and the vote
   
   
9. Time-series analysis of the polls published during the last month
   
   
10. Time-series analysis of the polls published during the last month
    
    
11. 1. Collectively, did the polls accurately forecast the vote ?
    
    
12. What happened in the first-round of the French presidential election of 2002 ? (Followed)
    
    
13. Pollsters - last published poll
    
    
14. Pollsters - last published poll
    
    
15. Pollsters - last published poll
    
    
16. Time-series analysis of the polls published during the last month
    
    
17. 2. Did individual pollsters forecast the vote accurately? Are some methodologies better than others?
    
    
18. Comparing France 2002 and US 2000
    
    
19. The methodology used in France : can it explain...
    
    
20. The methodology used in France : can it explain...
    
    
21. The methodology used in France : can it explain...
    
    
22. Conclusion
    
    
23. Latest News from France
    
    
24. Suggestions?
    
    

Commentaires ou questions ?

Page d'accueil

Dernière mise à jour :
mai 14, 2003 (mercredi)